Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022

The International Energy Agency released its report "Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022: Securing the Future of Electricity Resources. While the global economy remains affected by the epidemic, sales of electric vehicles saw a record-breaking doubling in 2021. The report analyzes trends in the global electric vehicle market and examines key issues such as power cell and supply chain security, the deployment of charging infrastructure and the development of vehicle-grid integration, and CO2 emissions. To promote the popularity of electric vehicles, the report makes five major recommendations, including enriching policy support tools, promoting adoption in emerging and developing economies, actively developing heavy-duty commercial markets, ensuring supply chain security, and developing infrastructure and smart grids.

In addition, the report also analyzes the new energy trends of the major carbon emitters.

————————China————————

In the Chinese market, electric vehicle sales will continue to exceed expectations. In the light vehicle market, the government is on track to achieve a 20% share of sales by 2025 based on current trends, and is expected to achieve this goal sooner. This share will reach 20% by 2023 in the established policy scenario and the announced commitment scenario due to policy support and the increase in economically priced models (especially small cars). By 2030, the share of electric light-duty vehicles will reach 45% of all light-duty vehicles in the established policy scenario and 46% in the announced commitment scenario.

Currently, China is a world leader in electrifying buses and two/three wheelers. In 2030, the stock of electric buses will reach 25% in the established policy scenario and 35% in the announced commitment scenario. And electric two-/three-wheelers will reach one-fifth of the two-/three-wheeled vehicle stock.

From these two scenarios, it can be seen that China is expected to continue to lead these markets in 2030. in 2030, the stock share of electric two/three wheelers will reach 60% for the established policy scenario and 75% for the announced commitment scenario. In both scenarios, for electric two/three wheelers versus buses, China will continue to lead in 2030 in terms of total sales share. Other countries are closing the gap with China, particularly in the announced commitment scenario, and reflect the ambition of other countries to electrify their buses.

While the current sales share of electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks in China is still less than 1 percent, the stated policy scenario calls for its share to increase to 13 percent by 2030, higher than in other major markets. In the announced commitment scenario, the share of electric truck sales is largely consistent, and electric truck sales are on track to meet the 2060 carbon neutrality target. Thus, in the announced commitment scenario, China's level of truck electrification is almost identical to that of the United States, but lower than that of Europe.

In China, for both the stated policy scenario and the announced commitment scenario, the share of electric vehicle sales in road transport (excluding two/three wheelers) would reach 45% by 2030. In the established policy scenario, China's currently existing policy framework and its targets to 2030 aim to achieve long-term carbon neutrality goals, thus aligning the two scenarios with respect to the share of electric vehicles. In addition, electrification of road transport is a priority policy in China with strong market dynamics, so it will far exceed the initial baseline target.

————————EU————————

Because of the high CO2 emission standards for light-duty and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, the EU will promote the use of various electric vehicle models and maintain its position as Europe's most advanced electric vehicle market in the coming years. The stated policy scenario would see the share of electric light-duty vehicle sales reach more than 35% in 2030. In the announced commitment scenario, the EU proposes to reduce emissions from cars and trucks by 55% and 50%, respectively, in 2030 compared to 1990; the UK has issued a timetable for a ban on internal combustion engine vehicles until 2030 and a ban on new light buses; and the declaration of the 26th UN Climate Change Conference mentions that the transition to 100% zero emissions from cars and trucks should be accelerated. As a result, the share of sales of electric light-duty vehicles in Europe will exceed 50% in 2030, with the EU accounting for about 55%, in the announced commitment scenario.

The EU Clean Vehicles Directive sets minimum procurement requirements for zero-emission buses and trucks. In the established policy scenario, the share of electric vehicle sales in Europe in 2030 is about 50% for buses and 7% for trucks, of which the EU accounts for 55% and 10%, respectively. Considering the EU's 2050 net zero emissions commitment, coupled with the signing of the Zero Emission Memorandum of Understanding for Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles by a number of European countries, in the announced commitment scenario, the share of sales of electric vehicles would be more than 55% for buses and more than 20% for trucks, with the EU accounting for more than 60% and more than 20%, respectively.

By 2030, the share of sales of all models of electric vehicles in Europe will exceed 35% in the established policy scenario. In the announced commitment scenario, the share of sales of electric vehicles (including electric light vehicles, electric buses, and electric trucks) in Europe will reach 50% in 2030.

————————U.S.————————

During the current administration, the U.S. has set stricter fuel economy standards and passed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act to provide funding for the construction of electric vehicle charging posts. Both of these measures will boost the market share of electric light-duty vehicles. The stated policy scenario calls for the share of U.S. electric light-duty vehicle sales to exceed 20 percent by 2030. In the announced commitment scenario, U.S. sales of electric light-duty buses will reach 50 percent, and all light-duty vehicles will be brought up to standard.

The Infrastructure Construction Act of 2021 also proposes to allocate funds for the construction of buses and related facilities and requires that at least 25 percent of the appropriated funds be used to build low- or zero-emission bus projects. In addition, California's Innovative Clean Transportation Code requires that all vehicles purchased by public transportation be zero-emission buses beginning in 2029 and that full use of zero-emission buses be achieved by 2040. As a result, the established policy scenario calls for a 30 percent share of U.S. electric bus sales in 2030. In the announced commitment scenario, to achieve the net zero emissions goal by 2050, the U.S. would need to accelerate the electrification of buses, and the share of electric bus sales should reach more than 40 percent in 2030.

California adopted the Advanced Clean Truck Regulations in 2020, and five other U.S. states (Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts) have adopted the regulations, which require that sales of zero-emission trucks should reach 30- 50 percent by 2030, depending on the circumstances. In the stated policy scenario, the share of U.S. electric truck sales would reach 6% in 2030. In the announced commitment scenario, this share would increase to 12 percent, indicating an ambition to achieve net zero, while other states are considering adoption of the Advanced Clean Truck Regulations. Although the EPA proposed a new rule on clean trucks in March 2022, the proposal does not yet include scenario projections, as the EPA plans to require further stringent GHG emission standards beyond the current proposal and seeks comment on the appropriateness of the proposal.

By 2030, the established policy scenario would have a 20 percent share of U.S. sales of all models of electric vehicles (except two-/three-wheelers), and the announced commitment scenario would have a 50 percent share.

————————Japan————————

In the established policy scenario, the share of electric light-duty vehicles sold in Japan is 20%, driven by current fuel economy standards and the latest trends. Electrification of light-duty vehicles grows even faster in the announced commitment scenario, reaching more than 30% in 2030, consistent with the target of 20-30% of light-duty bus sales in electric vehicle sales. Buses are expected to electrify faster than light-duty vehicles, reaching nearly 30% of sales in 2030 in the stated policy scenario and 50% in the announced commitment scenario. In the stated policy scenario, the share of sales of all models of electric vehicles (except two-/three-wheelers) in Japan would reach about 20% by 2030. In the announced commitment scenario, the share of sales of all models of electric vehicles is 30%.

————————India————————

India's focus on electrifying two-wheelers has increased the incentive for two-wheeler purchases to 50% in revisions to the EV Manufacturing Subsidy Phase II program and local policies in places like Delhi. The share of sales of electric two/three wheelers will increase from 2% in 2021 to nearly 50% in 2030 and will further increase to 60% in the established policy scenario. Due to the lower electrification rates of buses and light vehicles, they will reach 6% and 12% respectively in 2030 in the stated policy scenario. In the announced commitment scenario, the share of sales of electric buses in 2030 is about 25% and the share of sales of light-duty vehicles is about 30%, also indicating that India signed the declaration of the 26th UN Climate Change Conference and is committed to achieving 100% zero emissions from light-duty vehicles by 2040.

Of the sales share of all models of electric vehicles (including two/three wheelers), the stated policy scenario has India reaching over 30% in 2030, and just over 10% if two/three wheelers are not included. In the announced commitment scenario, the share of sales of electric vehicles in India would increase to 45% in 2030 for all on-road vehicle models and 30% if two/three wheelers are excluded.

————————Other countries————————

Many countries around the world have yet to develop a clear vision or goal for electric vehicles. It is worth noting that the Global Electric Vehicle Initiative is working with governments to promote the adoption of electric vehicles. Many countries have a low share of EV sales in many countries due to a lack of financial incentives for EVs, a lack of available charging infrastructure, and barriers to purchase due to higher prices. In the established policy scenario, light vehicles and buses account for about 6 percent of EV sales and trucks for about 1 percent in 2030 in other regions.

Although emerging markets and developing economies lag behind more advanced markets in terms of electrification and net-zero emissions, commitments have been announced to drive global electrification levels. In the announced commitment scenario, light vehicles and buses account for 15% of electric vehicle sales in other regions and trucks account for 3%. However, some of these countries have adopted policies and measures to electrify their vehicles, such as Canada, Chile, Colombia, Israel, South Korea, Pakistan and New Zealand, and have made net-zero emission commitments, so their share of sales is significantly higher than the above average. For example, in Canada, the share of sales of all EV models (except two/three wheelers) will exceed 25% for the established policy scenario and 50% for the announced commitment scenario. Similarly, in Korea, the average sales share of all EV models would be about 30% for the established policy scenario and more than 50% for the announced commitment scenario.

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